Bitcoin price could reach $45,000 by mid-May based on historical trends of top cryptocurrencies and long-term investors accumulating more Bitcoin. This is according to projections from K33 Research (formerly Arcane Research).
recently reportVetle Lunde, Senior Analyst at K33 Research, said Bitcoin’s cycle of decline and recovery was “very similar” in both length and trajectory to that seen during the 2018-19 bear market. It claims to follow a pattern.
At that time, BTC’s crash from all-time highs was more severe, an 88% drop from its 2017 peak of $20,000. Compared to his 78% decline in the 2022 cycle, Lunde described the similarities between the two top-to-bottom drawdowns as “eye-catching.”
“No one should expect current drawdowns to mirror previous drawdowns one-for-one, but the similarities to 2018 drawdowns are staggering. It’s similar in terms of time to trough and recovery trajectory,” he explained.
Bitcoin at $45,000: Will history repeat itself?
Lunde spoke about the Bitcoin price rising above $30,000 for the first time since June 2022. The token reached $30,397 on April 11, an increase of 84% from his $16,540 at the beginning of the year. At the time of writing, BTC was down 2.5%, trading at $28,483 per dollar. coin gecko data.
K33 Research, a crypto research firm formerly known as Arcane Research, said that the point at which Bitcoin price hit a trough (or lowest level during the cycle) in both cycles above lasted about 370 days. rice field.
After 510 days of bottoming out, prices have recovered and investors who bought at the lower price earned 60% returns in the two cycles under study, Lunde said.
The 2018 bear market rally peaked on June 29, 2019, 556 days after its 2017 peak, with prices down 34% from its peak, he added.
“If fractals continue, history is unlikely to repeat itself in the same way, but BTC will peak at $45,000 around May 20,” analysts predicted.
Bitcoin has been volatile since hitting an all-time high of $69,000 on November 10, 2021. This is because panicked investors have pulled out of the market due to uncertainty over cryptocurrency regulations, a string of project collapses, the Ukraine crisis, and a weak global economy. economic outlook.
Institutional investors support growth
Vetle Lunde explained that his forecast is based on increased demand from institutional investors. The long-term view of seasoned Bitcoin investors such as Microstrategy is that a 60-80% price drop from all-time highs is an opportunity to buy more BTC rather than sell it.
Also read: Bitcoin rises 84% to reach 2023 high
“These investors tend not to care about the state of the global economy. They want more exposure for BTC,” said Lunde. I have written on Twitter.
But he admits in his report that “behind the similarities lies a more satisfying explanation.” [in the cycles] It’s hard to get ahead. ”
“Committed long-term holders have sold at 60% drawdowns from previous peaks and are still unwilling to use these periods as accumulation periods,” the analyst elaborated.
“Furthermore, the rally in early 2023 has all the hallmarks of the hated rally. It’s a rise that people feel is underestimated.”
Other analysts on Twitter have made similar predictions for Bitcoin. one of them, next planpredicts that the price could reach $288,000 by the end of the year. another, Willie Woolooking for a price of $300,000 by December.
Meanwhile, Benjamin Cowen thinks Bitcoin will die altcoin, because alts tend to perform worse than BTC during bear markets and recovery periods.Analyst pointed out Some altcoins appear to be in a permanent macro downtrend when compared to Bitcoin.